Crisis Group Shows Madagascar Way Out Of Stalemate

Sunday, 21 March 2010 06:27

Written by Jerome Mwanda

NAIROBI (IDN) – Formerly an independent kingdom that was colonised by the French in 1896 but regained independence in 1960, the island nation of Madagascar in the Indian Ocean off the south-eastern coast of Africa has been in crisis since the bloody upheavals in early 2009. Several rounds of mediation under the auspices of the African Union (AU) and others have failed to unlock the stalemate.

The African Union peace and Security Council imposed on March 17, 2010 sanctions against the Madagascar government on travel ban and diplomatic isolation. The AU hinted that economic sanctions were in the pipeline.

The sanctions came after the Madagascar leadership failed to implement the AU-backed peace proposal. Current African Union peace and security chair Zambian ambassador Albert Muchanga told reporters the names of 109 individuals from Madagascar government are already listed for the implementation of sanctions.

The names include President Andry Rajoelina and top military officers. After a closed-door session in Addis Ababa, AU peace and security commissioner Ramate Lamamra said the sanctions includes refusal of visa for listed individuals, freezing of asset in foreign banks and international diplomatic isolation.

Madagascar is the world's fourth biggest island after Greenland, New Guinea and Borneo. Because of its isolation most of its mammals, half its birds, and most of its plants exist nowhere else on earth.

But the island is heavily exposed to tropical cyclones which bring torrential rains and destructive floods, such as the ones in 2000 and 2004, which left thousands homeless.

The sanctions were announced within days of tropical cyclone Hubert, which struck Madagascar and killed at least 36 and injured more than 85 000 people according to latest estimates. The risk of epidemics due to rising sea levels was considered high.

A dire economic environment weighs heavily on an already impoverished population. As a result, the misery of 20,653,556 people has compounded. 52 percent of the people practice indigenous beliefs, 41 percent are of Christian faith and seven percent are Muslims. Two-thirds of the population live under the international poverty line of 1.25 U.S. dollar a day.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) offers in a report titled ‘Madagascar: Ending the Crisis' a new approach to unlock the negotiation stalemate.

“A new constitution and speedy elections under international supervision offer the opportunity to focus on core issues rather than on the respective positions and manoeuvres of the protagonists”, says Daniela Kroslak, Deputy Director of Crisis Group’s Africa Program. “This would put an end to the prevailing power struggle and would move the country out of its current crisis”.

“The protagonists appear more concerned about securing the spoils of power than finding a solution in the national interest”, says Charlotte Larbuisson, ICG’s Southern Africa Analyst. “The lack of political will to compromise has made genuine power sharing virtually impossible” – and this "mainly due to the refusal of President Andry Rajoelina’s government to implement the power sharing agreed in August and Addis Ababa in November 2009.”

The report points out that Madagascar has been in crisis since the bloody upheavals in early 2009, when Rajoelina, the then mayor of the capital, Antananarivo, assembled several tens of thousands in the streets demanding the resignation of President Marc Ravalomanana’s government.

Ravalomanana yielded power on March 17, 2009 to a military directorate that immediately transferred its authority to Rajoelina. According to the ICG report, the 2009 stalemate is the product of a political elite that has constantly undermined the creation of stable and democratic institutions in favour of its own political and economic interests. Its practices have been at the root of the other political crises that have shaken Madagascar since independence.

The ICG points out that while violence has been kept at bay since the Rajoelina regime took power in March 2009, its legitimacy is questioned both internally and externally. To avoid further escalation, says the International Crisis Group, the mediation should cease trying to implement a transitional power-sharing deal but instead aim for agreement on the consensual writing of a constitution and the organisation of early elections under international supervision.

The Group, chaired by Louise Arbour, who served as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights from 2004 to 2008, has tabled a 10-point catalogue of recommendations to end the stalemate.

1. The Malagasy political movements are asked to sign a political agreement that authorises the AU and UN jointly to supervise the drafting of a new constitution through a consensual process involving Malagasy parties and civil society; organise and administer a referendum on that constitution and the holding of elections; and deploy a police mission to work in collaboration with the national police to secure the elections.

2. The Malagasy political movements are asked to accept the nomination of a single special envoy, mandated jointly by AU and the UN Security Council to exercise responsibility for the above tasks.

3. The High Authority of the Transition (HAT) is asked to avoid any potential conflict of interest by requiring members who want to stand in the elections to resign first from their posts.

4. HAT should cease any legislative activities and exercise the role of a caretaker government only.

5. The chief of the joint mediation team, Joaquim Chissano, is urged to collaborate closely with the special AU/UN envoy and intervene as a moral authority in case the process reaches an impasse.

6. The AU Peace and Security Council and the UN Security Council should appoint a senior African as special joint envoy to exercise responsibility for the tasks enumerated in recommendation one.

7. They should secure the electoral process in close collaboration with the national police by authorising the deployment of a joint AU/UN police mission composed of small operational units integrated into the Malagasy police forces and led by an AU/UN police commissioner reporting directly to the special envoy.

8. They should convey to all parties that the obstruction of the process would lead to targeted sanctions (such as asset freezes and visa bans) for themselves and their families.

9. France, the U.S., the European Union and South Africa are urged to support diplomatically and financially the peace process (constitution drafting and organisation of elections in particular), but withhold any other financial support until after the satisfactory completion of the electoral process.

10. They should promote an armed forces reform programme, focusing in particular on integration into civilian life of those who choose to leave the army and on a programme that allows high-ranking officers to retire in dignity. (IDN-InDepthNews/21.03.2010)

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